The Nexus Between Government Bonds, Corporate Bonds and Value of Bond Transaction on Economic Growth in Nigeria

The impact of government bonds, corporate bonds, and the value of the bond transactions on the economic growth of Nigeria was analysed in this study and the annual time series data was analysed (1986–2025). The data used were secondary data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation technique was used in estimating the relationship among the variables. The explanatory variables were government bonds (GBOND), corporate bonds (CBOND) and value of bond transactions (VBTT), while GDP Growth Rate (GDPgr) was used as a proxy for economic growth. The empirical results showed that the coefficient for government bonds was negative and significantly significant, -1.243432 at p = 0.0156, which indicates that government bonds had a negative impact on economic growth. On the other hand, the coefficient for corporate bonds is found to be positive and statistically significant (0.712087; p = 0.0040) and for the value of bond transactions, it is (0.802306; p = 0.0104) which is also positive and statistically significant. The model was statistically significant (F-statistic = 34.65990; p = 0.0000) and had a high R-squared (R² = 0.825369), suggesting that the model had a strong explanatory power for the data, as a total of 82.54 % of the variations in economic growth were explained by the explanatory variables. The study ultimately found that corporate bond markets and bond transactions can boost economic growth, but that too much of the government bond market could hinder economic growth if the borrowing is not put to good use. The study recommends that government bond proceeds be directed to capital productive projects while policies geared towards encouraging issuance of corporate bonds, enhancing the liquidity of the bond market and enhancing regulatory oversight should be put in place to ensure sustainable economic growth in Nigeria.

Keywords: Government Bonds, Corporate Bonds, Economic Growth, Nigeria, Value of Bond Transactions.

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