From Economic Growth to Structural Transformation: Evidence from the First Biennium Report of Agenda 2063’s Second Ten-Year Implementation Plan

Africa’s development challenge is shifting from generating economic growth to ensuring that growth produces sustained productivity gains, productive employment, rising real incomes, economic diversification, and improved welfare. This study examines Africa’s progress towards inclusive structural transformation during the first two years of the Second Ten-Year Implementation Plan of Agenda 2063 (2024–2025), dubbed a decade of acceleration. Using a continental comparative secondary-data design based on the First Biennial Continental Progress Report, which covers 44 reporting Member States, the study analyses economic growth, real GDP per capita, poverty, unemployment, inequality, manufacturing value added, processed exports, diversification, agricultural productivity, and food security. The findings reveal a significant transformation gap. Moonshot 1 achieved an overall performance score of 60%, and inclusive, equitable, and sustainable economic growth achieved 62%. Poverty declined from 41.6% to 34.6%, unemployment from 10.5% to 9.5%, and the Gini coefficient from 0.382 to 0.365. However, real GDP per capita fell from US$2,234 in 2023 to US$2,053 in 2025, and undernourishment rose from 19.4% to 20.4%. Manufacturing value added increased only marginally, from 11.24% to 11.53%; processed exports rose from 24.77% to 26.46%; and the diversification index rose from 0.43 to 0.45. The study argues that Africa is improving selected welfare outcomes faster than it is transforming its productive structures, and that poverty and unemployment reduction alone do not demonstrate productivity-led transformation. It proposes an inclusive structural transformation framework linking productive investment, industrialisation, agricultural modernisation, diversification, productive employment, value addition, and resilience to improved incomes and welfare. The next phase of Agenda 2063 implementation should prioritise productivity-enhancing industrialisation, agricultural value chains, productive-sector finance, regional value chains, infrastructure, skills, technological upgrading, and climate-resilient investment.

Keywords: Agenda 2063, structural transformation, transformation gap, inclusive growth, economic diversification.

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