Time Series Analysis of Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) Certified Area in Latin America 2013-2025

The FSC is a forest certification system which develops sustainability standards for forest management. Present in over 80 countries FSC continuously seek in its strategic planning to increase certified area worldwide, however, even with a huge forest aptitude, Latin America has notably few areas certified by this important tool for responsible forest management as compared to Europe or North America. In this study, by carrying out a time series analysis of FSC-certified areas in Latin America between February 2013 and April 2025, we sought to evaluate the characteristics of this series, identify points for intervention and adjust predictive models. We used FSC-certified area data publicly available on the FSC international website and processed the time series using Gretl software. The results demonstrated a growth trend in the FSC-certified area in Latin America; and the intervention analysis revealed significant dates that may change the time series behaviour. Two models were fitted, with and without intervention, of which the model without intervention presented the lowest MAPE, making it the best candidate for predicting the FSC-certified area in Latin America. Time series analysis proved to be a powerful tool for identifying dates to be further explored within the FSC system, deepening understanding on events that potentially influence the increase or decrease in the certified area. Future work may correlate other time series that could also characterize and indicate key points to understand FSC system and pursuit of expansion of sustainable forest management in Latin America.

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