Government Revenue and Agricultural Sector Output in Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis (1993–2023)

This study examines the impact of government revenue on agricultural sector output in Nigeria from 1993 to 2023, a period marked by economic reforms, oil revenue fluctuations, and renewed policy attention to non-oil sectors. The agricultural sector, being vital for food security, employment, and economic diversification, depends significantly on public investment, which is largely influenced by government revenue. Using an ex post facto research design and annual time series data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to assess both the short-run and long-run effects of government revenue on agricultural output. The findings reveal a positive and statistically significant long-run relationship between government revenue and agricultural sector output, indicating that increased revenue enhances government capacity to invest in rural infrastructure, input subsidies, extension services, and agricultural research. However, in the short run, the relationship is weak and insignificant, suggesting delays in policy execution and the time lag between investment and agricultural productivity outcomes. The study concludes that consistent and adequate government revenue plays a crucial role in driving agricultural development in Nigeria. It recommends the adoption of strategies to diversify revenue sources, strengthen fiscal discipline, and prioritize agricultural funding to ensure sustained sectoral growth. These findings offer important insights for policymakers seeking to leverage fiscal tools to enhance agricultural productivity and achieve broader economic development goals.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *