Effect of Monetary Tightening and Development Finance Inflows in Nigeria

This study investigated the impact of monetary tightening on development finance inflows in Nigeria between 2010 and 2024. Amidst global interest rate hikes and contractionary policies, Nigeria’s Central Bank has implemented several tightening measures, including multiple increases in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to combat inflation and currency depreciation. However, these actions may have unintended effects on the availability of development finance, particularly for infrastructure, SMEs, and concessional lending. Using time series data and econometric models including OLS and Correlation Matrix, the macroeconomic indicators used were inflation rate, exchange rate, Central Bank of Nigeria monetary policies rate and credit to the private, and MPR on development finance inflows. The results showed that although these indicators exhibited expected directional effects, none of them were statistically significant predictors of development finance. The findings indicate that development finance inflows are influenced more by structural, institutional, and governance-related factors than by conventional macroeconomic variables. The study recommends a multidimensional policy approach that integrates macroeconomic stability with institutional reforms and governance enhancements to attract sustained development finance. This research contributes to the understanding of how monetary policy interacts with development finance in emerging economies.

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