In the aftermath of the Second World War, European states embarked on an unprecedented project of cooperation to avert a recurrence of the catastrophic experiences of the early twentieth century. This endeavor culminated in the process of integration initiated in 1957. At the dawn of the new millennium, the European Union was widely regarded as one of the most prominent exemplars of regional integration. However, in recent decades it has confronted a succession of profound crises, casting uncertainty over its future trajectory.

This article seeks to address the central research question: What are the plausible scenarios for the European Union by 2050 in light of its contemporary challenges? To this end, four alternative scenarios are developed, among which the “Desired World” scenario emerges as the most viable and aspirational. Within this framework, the Union’s capacity to expand global investment, foster technological innovation, intensify economic interdependence with major international actors, and consolidate influence in resource-rich regions—particularly those endowed with natural gas, gold, and other strategic commodities—is identified as the principal driver of its potential transformation into a leading politico-economic superpower by mid-century.

The study is anchored in the theoretical paradigm of institutionalism and employs advanced futures research methodologies, specifically scenario-based analysis (Global Business Network approach) and the Factor method. Complementary qualitative techniques—including systematic observation, expert panel discussions, and structured brainstorming sessions—were deployed for data collection and interpretive analysis.

The organizational structure of the study proceeds as follows: first, the institutionalist framework is elaborated; second, key actors are identified through the Mactor method; and third, scenario construction is undertaken through the Global Business Network approach.