Effect of Public Debt on Economic Growth in Nigeria

Public debt is an important financing tool for governments, particularly when taxation or expenditure cuts are not viable. However, persistent reliance on borrowing has led to rising debt burdens, making it essential to examine its effect on economic growth in Nigeria. This study utilized secondary data from the CBN, DMO, NBS, and World Bank covering 2000–2024, a period characterized by major fiscal reforms and macroeconomic changes. An ex-post facto research design and Multiple Regression Analysis within the OLS framework were employed. The results revealed that external debt has a positive and significant effect on economic growth, while domestic debt is positive but insignificant. Debt servicing negatively affects growth, supporting the debt overhang theory, whereas government expenditure enhances growth in line with Keynesian theory. Exchange rate instability was found to negatively impact economic performance. The study concludes that public debt significantly influences economic growth in Nigeria and recommends prioritizing external borrowing due to its lower interest burden. 

Keywords: External Debt, Domestic Debt, Gross Domestic Product, Debt Service Payments, Government Expenditure, Exchange Rate, Debt Management Office, National Bureau of Statistics.

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